In the current market conditions, most people are asking the same question when it comes to the price of Bitcoin: How low can it go? My answer: No idea. I don’t care.
What I am interested in, and I do care about, as an investor, is: how high will it go, and as importantly, when?
Here I want to talk about my realistic price predictions for Bitcoin. What prices do I expect Bitcoin to reach and how did I come to these conclusions?
Price Prediction #1: $67,500
When: Sep 2024 – Mar 2025
How: I’ve analyzed all-time highs following the last three, four-year bitcoin cycles. I’m not going to go into depth around the four-year cycles but there is some excellent content on the internet about how Bitcoin is in various four-year cycles. Often it has something to do with halving, whereby the rewards for Bitcoin miners are halved.
According to axi.com: “Historically, the price of bitcoin always rose significantly after a halving event, but not immediately. A close look at the past three halving events shows that a significant price rise usually begins after six to twelve months.”
The next halving event is expected to occur around May 4, 2024, when Bitcoin hits 840,000 blocks.
On 4th December 2013, the price of Bitcoin reached its then all-time high of $1,151.17 before decreasing in price. The next time it reached this level was on the 4th Jan 2017, exactly 4 years later.
The next major all-time high (ATH) occurred on 16th December 2017, when the price skyrocketed to $19,497.40. After a bear market that seemed like an eternity, the price again reached over $19,500 on the 30th of November 2020. Again, almost exactly 4 years after the previous ATH, and 3 years after previously reaching this level.
The next and most recent ATH occurred on 8th November 2021 when the price reached $67,566.83.
Based on previous patterns, I expect the price of Bitcoin to again reach around $67,500 somewhere between Sep 2024 – Mar 2025 (giving myself a nice 6-month leeway). I wouldn’t be surprised if it exceeded this timeframe.
Price prediction #2: $100,000
When: December 2025
How: Whilst my previous analysis has shown the previous ATH’s following a four-year cycle, what should be obvious is that in the previous two cycles, not only has Bitcoin reached the previous high, it has absolutely smashed through it. From $1,151 to $19,497 is an absolutely insane gain. As it $19,497 to $67,566.
Again, following the previous cycles and increases on ATH’s, it is easy to imagine Bitcoin smashing the previous record and reaching $100,000.
Price prediction #3: $534,243
How: By exceeding the Gold Market Cap.
According to https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply, in 2032 there will be 20,671,875 Bitcoins in circulation. The current market cap of gold is $11.503 Trillion, like the level it was at in 2012.
11,503,000,000,000 / 20,671,875 = 556,456
I have absolutely no doubt that Bitcoin will overtake gold as the global reserve currency. It’s called digital gold for a reason, and if you read my previous article on why Bitcoin is the most superior currency ever (if you haven’t read it, you should) you will see my reasoning for believing in the core value of Bitcoin as a currency.
The 2032 target also provides the opportunity for many macro factors to play out which I believe will play into the hands of Bitcoin:
More people are becoming aware and investing in Bitcoin (retail investors)
Institutional investors realizing the security and potential returns for themselves and their investors.
The USD is continuing to decline in power.
Disclaimer – I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. I am, however, continuing to invest in Bitcoin.